Dr William Burns, CIPFA Social Care Policy Advisor
The Labour government’s first Spending Review since winning the 2024 General Election is a critical moment to reset priorities after a turbulent start in office. For adult and children’s social care, this couldn’t be timelier. The sector is grappling with rising, complex demand, ongoing local authority fragility, and the urgent need to build sustainable care systems after years of underfunding and piecemeal reform.
Local authorities, providers, and people who draw on care and support will be listening closely — for signs that this government is serious about meaningful change.
Dither, defer and delay: the cost of inaction
Labour’s flagship adult social care commitment — the creation of a National Care Service in England — is still in its early stages. The Casey Commission, established in January to explore its delivery, will not report until 2026 (phase one) and 2028 (phase two). For context, the past 27 years have seen 27 separate white papers, reviews, and commissions on adult social care. That is a lot of consultation and recommendations that have led to very limited action.
A white paper titled Building the National Care Service was published as far back as the Gordon Brown era. Yet still, successive governments have failed to break free from the familiar cycle of dither, defer and delay. The Health and Social Care Committee recently warned of the growing "cost of inaction."
CIPFA urges this government to accelerate the pace of reform. We echo the message of the Association of Directors of Adult Social Services (ADASS): Care Can’t Wait.
Mind the gap: workforce pressures and financial fallout
The recent decision to remove social care visas for overseas workers has alarmed the sector. With vacancy rates in adult social care three times the national average, services are already stretched beyond capacity. While long-term reliance on overseas recruitment isn’t sustainable, cutting off this pipeline without a credible domestic workforce plan risks deepening the crisis. Councils will be pushed towards the use of costly agency staff to plug gaps in provision.
At the same time, a rise in employer National Insurance Contributions is adding pressure on providers — what the National Care Association has called a "seismic" cost shift.
Without the right staff in the right roles at the right time, people will go without the care they need to live independently and with dignity. This also places greater strain on unpaid carers, many of whom will reduce or leave paid employment — undermining wider economic ambitions and labour market participation.
CIPFA’s forthcoming case study hub, Social Care Finance in Focus, will showcase how local authorities are working to build a skilled and resilient social care workforce. But local action needs national backing. We call on the government to support councils in this crucial work to meet need and bolster the economy.
Growing pains: children’s services and the SEND timebomb
Pressures are mounting not just in adult social care, but also in services for children and families. As CIPFA’s report Managing Rising Demand for Adult and Children’s Social Care outlines, councils face skyrocketing demand across both areas — often without the budget to match.
One of the most urgent issues is the looming end of the statutory override on SEND (Special Educational Needs and Disabilities) budgets. Many CFOs are kept awake at night by the real possibility that without intervention, billions of pounds of debt will soon land on their council balance sheets. Our Reforming SEND Finance publication estimated that nearly half of England’s upper-tier councils could face Section 114 notices unless action is taken.
Despite this looming cliff edge, government communication has been minimal. There’s still time to act — but the window is closing. CIPFA urges the government to remove this issue from the "too difficult, too expensive" box and commit to a clear programme to reduce SEND deficits — both to protect financial sustainability and improve outcomes for children and young people.
Do you deliver?
This Spending Review is more than a fiscal statement. It’s a test of whether the government will deliver for the millions who rely on adult and children’s social care, and for the professionals who support them.
What the sector needs now is not another promise — but clarity, strategy, funding, and action. Because care can’t wait.